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FEBRUARY 1,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET:

GREAT GAME – Wasn't the Super Bowl game great?  That ending was right out of Hollywood.  Both teams, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, were excellent, but I'm kinda glad that the Patriots won.  Seattle won last year, but I don't know whether there was a celebration in Seattle, one of the most left-wing cities in America.  Were they ashamed to celebrate?  Did they think victory meant they'd become imperialist warmongers?  Or maybe they celebrated by throwing tofu parties and planting organic marijuana.  We have many readers in Seattle.  Please fill me in.

PANIC, INC. – Do you have the feeling that we get many wildly exaggerated weather stories?  Well, you're right.  From droyspencer.com:  "The numbers are in at the National Climate Data Center, and out of the top 55 snowstorms impacting the major population centers of the Northeast U.S., the January 2015 blizzard that blasted Boston ranked #41, or a weak 'Category 2.'   It’s not clear that more snowstorms in recent decades aren’t just from a slight shift in the storm track bringing Northwest Atlantic winter storms (of which there are many…Greenland routinely gets clobbered) closer to New England."  It's snowing right now where we are, with predictions of 4-9 inches.  We'll see if it happens.   There hasn't been any plowing yet, and there usually is.  I think the cities, having been the victim of a number of exaggerated forecasts, are trying to save some money by waiting to see how serious the snowfall actually becomes.

AGGRESSIVE RUSSIANS – From London's Express:  "A RUSSIAN bomber intercepted over the Channel last week was carrying a nuclear missile designed to destroy Trident submarines, it emerged last night.  RAF Typhoon fighter jets were scrambled on Wednesday after two long-range TU-95 'Bear' bombers were detected flying over the English Channel.  The incident was last night described as 'yet another in a series of deliberately provocative' measures by President Vladimir Putin which confirmed that Nato’s status had moved firmly from 'rival to adversary'.  Sources within the Ministry of Defence last night revealed that one of the two long-range bombers was carrying at least one air-dropped 'seek and find' nuclear warhead-carrying missile, designed to seek and destroy a Vanguard submarine."  Guess the reset with Moscow didn't exactly work.  Obama will blame Bush.

February 1,  2015     Permalink

JORDANIAN ANGUISH – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  With the exception of Israel, Jordan has probably been our closest and most reliable ally in the Arab world.  And it has taken a moderate line on the Arab-Israeli conflict, to the extent that it has an embassy in Israel. 

But Jordan is now going through a severe crisis.  One of its pilots, assigned to the war against ISIS, was shot down and is now an ISIS prisoner.  There are fears he will be beheaded.  He comes from a prominent tribe in Jordan that is demanding that the Jordanian government get him back.  Should he be executed, the Jordanian population could turn severely against its government for failing.  From Fox:   

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday he is "infuriated" by the purported beheading of journalist Kenji Goto by the Islamic State group and vowed to hold the terror group responsible.

"I feel indignation over this immoral and heinous act of terrorism," Abe told reporters after convening an emergency Cabinet meeting.

"When I think of the grief of his family, I am left speechless," he said. "We are filled with deep regret."

Japan ordered heightened security precautions Sunday and said it would persist with its non-military support for fighting terrorism.

Threats from ISIS prompted an order for tighter security at airports and at Japanese facilities overseas, such as embassies and schools, government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said.

He said it would be "inappropriate" to comment on the status of the Jordanian pilot.

The failure to save Goto raised fears for the life of the pilot, Lt. Muath al-Kaseasbeh, also held by the militant group that controls about a third of both Syria and Iraq. Unlike some earlier messages delivered in the crisis, the video that circulated online late Saturday purporting to show a militant beheading Goto did not mention the pilot.

Jordan renewed an offer Sunday to swap an Al Qaeda prisoner for al-Kaseasbeh, who was seized after his F-16 crashed near ISIS' de facto capital, Raqqa, Syria, in December.

Government spokesman Mohammed al-Momani told The Associated Press that "we are still ready to hand over" Sajida al-Rishawi, who faces death by hanging for her role in triple hotel bombings in Jordan in 2005.

COMMENT:  Countries like Jordan have two possible paths in a situation like this – defiance or appeasement.  We want Jordan to defy ISIS, but we are led by a weak, vacillating president who has lost the respect of world leaders.  Jordanians may well reason that they can no longer depend on the United States.  They may also sense that Barack Hussein Obama Jr. is more interested in an accommodation with Iran than in backing America's traditional allies.

We await news on the Jordanian pilot.  His fate may have implications far beyond the life of one man.

February 1, 2015       Permalink

OH REALLY? – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:   No prejudice meant, but I'm a bit wary of a new plot by the Obama administration to increase the clout of American Muslims.  Seems to be a priority for the Obaman crowd.  From AP:

DETROIT (AP) - The federal government is considering allowing those of Middle Eastern and North African descent to identify as such on the next 10-year census, which could give Arab-Americans and other affected groups greater political clout and access to public funding, among other things.

The U.S. Census Bureau will test the new Middle East-North Africa (MENA) classification for possible inclusion on the 2020 census if it gets enough positive feedback about the proposed change by Sunday, when the public comment period ends.

Arab-Americans, who make up the majority of those who would be covered by the MENA classification, have previously been classified by default as white on the census, which helps determine congressional district boundaries and how billions of dollars in federal funding are allocated, among other things.

Those pushing for the MENA classification say it would more fully and accurately count them, thus increasing their visibility and influence among policymakers.

The Census Bureau plans to test it later this year by holding focus group discussions with people who would be affected by the proposed change. Congress would still have to sign off on the proposal before the change could be added to the 2020 census.

"We know the challenges," says Hassan Jaber, who runs a Detroit-area social services group and serves on a census advisory board formed to evaluate Americans' changing racial and ethnic identities. "It really does take rethinking ... who we are as a population and what our needs are, (but) there are specific needs for Arab-Americans that are not being recognized and not being met."

COMMENT:  Is this being done for anyone else?  Just askin'.

February 1, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY IN TROUBLE? – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  It's hard to come to any other conclusion when you look at a series of polls that, yes, shows her leading in potential matchups with GOP presidential candidates, but not leading by any convincing amount.  From Hot Air:

Mitt Romney’s not running for President again, telling supporters that it’s time for the Republican Party to look to other leaders for its future. Democrats may wonder whether they have to tell Hillary Clinton the same thing. In a PPP poll taken this week, Hillary Clinton can’t get to 50% against any Republican challenger paired against her, even Romney:

The automated poll of nearly 900 registered voters, conducted last week by Public Policy Polling, found that 48 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 43 percent who viewed the former secretary of State favorably.

While Clinton — the prospective favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination should she enter the race — holds leads over every major GOP candidate tested in the poll, she doesn’t break 50 percent against any, and some are well within striking distance. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker comes closest, with Clinton leading him by a margin of 45 percent to 42 percent (with 14 percent not sure who they’d vote for) – within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

COMMENT:  And Hillary Clinton is far better known than any of the potential Republican presidential candidates.  We tend to forget that she never was all that popular, and lost the 2008 nomination to a young senator from Illinois named Barack Obama.

We can only imagine the numbers once a Scott Walker really starts to campaign.

And if Hillary should decline to run, the prospects for the Democrats are weaker still.

February 1,  2015     Permalink

JANUARY 31,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

SCOTT SURGES – I can't say I'm surprised.  When voters get a good look at Scott Walker, they like him.  Or, at least enough like him to win elections.  From Bloomberg:  "Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is surging, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is an also-ran and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is dominating in a new poll of Iowans likely to vote in the nation's first presidential nominating contest.  The Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, taken Monday through Thursday, shows Walker leading a wide-open Republican race with 15 percent, up from just 4 percent in the same poll in October. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky was at 14 percent and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, stood at 10 percent.  Bush trailed with 8 percent and increasingly is viewed negatively by likely Republican caucus-goers. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is in even worse shape, with support from just 4 percent. More troubling for Christie: He's viewed unfavorably by 54 percent, among the highest negative ratings in the potential field. At 9 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson pulls more support than either Bush or Christie."  It's very early, but, once Scott Walker jumped in and gave a major speech in Iowa, his race was off and running.  The man refuses to lose.

BLUNDER – From redalertpolitics.com:  "This is one of the worst cases of 'judging a book by its cover' that we’ve ever heard… When Wilmington, N.C. resident Mary Claire Caine went to the grocery store last Friday, she was excited to pull into one of the reserved 'Veteran Parking' spaces. As a veteran of the Air Force who served in Kuwait and on the flight line of the F-117 Nighthawk, it made her feel a sense of pride, local news station WECT reported. But when she walked back out to her car that day she found a nasty note taped to the side window.  It read, 'Maybe [you] can’t read the sign you parked in front of. This space is reserved for those who fought for America….not you. Thanks, Wounded Vet.'  Caine told WECT that she felt confused and certain that there was a mistake.  'For a split second I thought, "Am I a worthy enough veteran to park in this spot?" And, then I got very angry at myself for even considering that,' Caine recalled to the TV station....Since the incident went public Caine has received an outpouring of support from other veterans and community members, as well as an apology from the grocery store for their other patron’s behavior."

SO MUCH FOR THE FIRST AMENDMENT – From The Politico:  "Reporters covering the House Democrats' retreat in Philadelphia this week are having a much different experience than when they’re on their home turf on Capitol Hill.  Reporters are being escorted to and from the restroom and lobby and are being barred from entering the hotel outside of scheduled events, even if they've been invited by a member of Congress.  During Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks at the retreat Friday, reporters were required to have a staff member, usually a junior member of the press team, escort them when going to the bathroom or to the lobby. The filing center for reporters was at a separate hotel from where the retreat was taking place, so access was limited to members of Congress specifically made available to the press.  'It was a police state. It was absurd how heavy handed the capitol police and Democratic staff were in trying to control everywhere the press went,' New York Times reporter Jeremy Peters said in an interview...Peters said he was told by a staffer they were being escorted to prevent them from talking to members of Congress."  When the real left is in power, this is what happens.  Their belief in freedom is limited.

January 31,  2015    Permalink

PERRY'S LINE – AT 12:14 P.M. ET:  Former Governor Rick Perry of Texas is making a serious run for the presidency.  He should be regarded as a credible candidate.  Although he showed himself to be woefully unprepared when he ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, he has made the necessary corrections.  He brings a fine record as governor of Texas.  His argument is that governors make better presidents.  From The Hill:

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) says that governors are much better suited for the presidency than senators — a useful argument for him to make as he looks to position himself for a potential 2016 bid against a field likely to include several senators.

“Governors have to make choices every day. Governors are judged on the results of what we do,” Perry told The Daily Caller Friday. “Senators talk.”

He added, “United States senators, by choosing to go into that line of work, don’t get to do that. They don’t get to learn, or to exhibit their leadership ability and have clear results of their actions.”

While the 2016 Republican field is hardly set, potential candidates who are current or former governors include Chris Christie (N.J.), Scott Walker (Wis.), Jeb Bush (Fla.), Mike Huckabee (Ark.), John Kasich (Ohio), Mike Pence (Ind.), Bobby Jindal (La.), and Perry. Also at the center of speculation about running are serving Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Ted Cruz (Texas), and Lindsey Graham (Ala.) as well as former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.).

Perry said that someone who had served as governor was typically a “grizzled vet,” and asked rhetorically whether the country would want someone who’s all talk, or all action.

“Would you rather have someone who talks about aviation a lot and really gives a great speech about aerodynamics and about navigation and about weather and about all of the different things a pilot needs to know, but have only about 100 hours of being behind the yoke of an airliner?" he said.

“Or would you rather have a 10,000-hour individual who has had to fly through storms?”

COMMENT:  It's a powerful argument, and it will be tested well in 2016, when the GOP has a number of senators and governors running at the same time.  The Dems have Hillary, whose executive experience is extremely limited.  She was secretary of state, but the executive aspects of that office are minimal.  It's a traveling salesman job, and she never made a sale.

Perry would probably make a very good president, but his poor performance in 2012 continues to dog him.  And other governors, particularly Scott Walker of Wisconsin, are seen as more "current."  Still, Perry is not a man who loses elections.  I'd watch him closely.

January 31, 2015       Permalink

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN – AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  We have cheered in recent years as North Dakota went through an oil boom, contributing mightily to making America energy-independent, and helping to drive down prices at the pump.

Trouble is, we're now seeing the other side of high oil production.  Prices are becoming too low to sustain the boom and the state's revenue base.  From Fox: 

North Dakota lawmakers are now expecting billions less in tax revenue during the next two and a half years.

Blame falling oil prices.

A report from Legislative Council downgrading revenue projections by $5.5 billion points mostly to the impact of oil tax exemptions the Legislature previously failed to reform.

During the 2013 legislative session multiple bills to eliminate the exemptions in exchange for lower top rates were rejected. Now plunging oil prices are expected to invoke those triggers causing a multi-billion swing in the state's expected revenues.

In early January, lawmakers began their 2015 session under what was described as a "black cloud" of oil price concerns. Now a projection released by lawmakers Thursday expects the state to lose $680 million in income and sales tax revenue between now and June 30, 2017.

North Dakota likely will lose another $4.8 billion in oil and gas tax revenue during that same period.

The impact on the state's finances could be dramatic.

COMMENT:  There are reports of oil-exploration companies in serious financial trouble because their return, due to low prices, is too small to warrant exploration.

Don't expect any help from Barack Obama or the Beverly Hills environmentalists who despise the oil industry.  But we must find a way to balance our need for independence-producing production against the desirability of low prices at the pump.  This won't be easy, but creating the oil boom wasn't easy either.  It was fought bitterly by the ideological left.   

In making adjustments we must be wary of those who want to kill the boom, who don't want us energy-independent, and who have substantial resources to pursue their ways.  That includes foreign interests like Saudi Arabia, which depends on America's need for foreign petroleum. 

I'd imagine that, if production slows in North Dakota due to lower prices, the result will be a tightening of the supply, which in turn should lead to somewhat higher gasoline prices.  That in turn will lead to an increase in production and exploration.  The market might just sort this out.

January 31, 2015       Permalink

THE PAIN IN SPAIN – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  We are still absorbing the news that Greece, a NATO member, has just elected a radical leftist government, whose instincts are opposed to much of what the West presumably stands for.  We're now seeing the rapid rise of a radical leftist movement in Spain.  From AP:

MADRID (AP) -- Tens of thousands of people marched through Madrid on Saturday in a show of strength by a fledgling radical leftist party, which hopes to emulate the success of Greece's Syriza party in the Spanish general election later this year.

Podemos supporters from across Spain converged onto Cibeles fountain Saturday before packing the avenue leading to Puerta del Sol square.

State broadcaster TVE said that hundreds of thousands were at the march, but no official attendance figures were provided.

Podemos ("We Can") aims to shatter the country's predominantly two-party system and the "March for Change" gathered crowds in the same place where sit-in protests against political and financial corruption laid the party's foundations in 2011.

The party's rise is also greatly due to the charisma of its pony-tailed leader, Pablo Iglesias, a 36-year-old political science professor.

And...

Opinion polls show the party could possibly take the No.1 spot in upcoming elections and thus trigger one of the biggest political shake-ups in Spain since democracy was restored in 1978 after decades of dictatorship.

COMMENT:  Spain is also a NATO member.   This is serious stuff.  Europe is plagued with problems.  It allowed crazed immigration levels from hostile societies.  Its human reproduction rate will mean, essentially, the near-elimination of some countries, like the Netherlands, within 40 years.  Its defense budgets have been cut to the bone to make way for the welfare state.  And now we have the rise of the far left. 

Will Western Europe even be important in 40 years?  I'm not so sure.  It may be just a museum piece.

The far left is not friendly to the United States.  But I suspect that, in his heart of hearts, the current occupant of the White House is cheering them on.

January 31,  2015     Permalink